State data show gap between job announcements and jobs delivered in North Carolina

As North Carolina leaders highlight a record number of job announcements, state economic data show a growing disconnect between promises made and jobs ultimately delivered, particularly within the state’s primary incentive program.

The Job Development Investment Grant program, known as JDIG, is frequently cited by state officials as a driver of job creation. But figures published in North Carolina’s Economic Development Grant Report for fiscal year 2025 indicate that many JDIG-backed projects never reach completion.

Since the program’s creation in fiscal year 2003, the state has approved 449 JDIG agreements. Of those, 177 remain active. Fifty agreements have been completed successfully. The remaining 222 were terminated or withdrawn.

That means nearly half of all JDIG agreements approved over the program’s history have already failed. Among agreements that have reached an endpoint, the failure rate is significantly higher. Of 272 non-active agreements, only 50 were completed. More than four out of five — 81.6 percent — were terminated or withdrawn.

The program has expanded steadily over time. From fiscal years 2003 through 2015, North Carolina approved an average of 15.5 JDIG agreements per year. That average rose to 22.5 agreements annually from fiscal years 2016 to 2020 and increased again to nearly 25 per year from fiscal years 2021 to 2025.

As the number of agreements has grown, so has the state’s long-term financial exposure. Remaining potential liabilities tied to JDIG agreements increased from approximately $624 million in fiscal year 2015 to more than $3.1 billion by fiscal year 2025, according to state reports.

Job announcements tied to JDIG have also increased sharply. From fiscal years 2003 to 2015, JDIG agreements announced an average of 4,934 jobs per year. That figure rose to 7,728 jobs annually from fiscal years 2016 to 2020 and climbed to more than 12,000 jobs per year from fiscal years 2021 to 2025.

Actual job creation has not followed the same trend. From 2003 through 2013, JDIG projects produced an average of 2,841 jobs per year. From 2014 through 2018, the average rose to 3,698 jobs annually. From 2019 through 2023, job creation increased only slightly again, averaging about 3,714 jobs per year.

State data also show an increase in terminated and withdrawn agreements. From fiscal years 2006 to 2015, JDIG averaged 7.8 failed agreements per year. That figure rose to 12.6 annually from fiscal years 2016 to 2020 and increased again to 16.2 per year from fiscal years 2021 to 2025.

The growing number of failed agreements helps explain the widening gap between announced jobs and jobs actually created.

Supporters of broad-based economic policy changes note that North Carolina’s overall employment growth over the past decade coincided with reductions in personal income taxes, the phaseout of the corporate income tax, and changes to the franchise tax — reforms that applied to all employers rather than select companies receiving incentive deals.

The debate over incentives has intensified as Gov. Josh Stein has raised concerns about continuing the scheduled phaseout of the corporate income tax.

Analysis of JDIG trends was conducted by the John Locke Foundation using state economic development data.

While job announcements continue to generate headlines, state records show that many incentive-backed projects fail to deliver lasting employment. The data underscore a distinction often lost in economic development discussions: announcements signal intent, but sustained jobs determine outcomes.