How You Can Identify Heat Vulnerability in Your Community

A new experimental data tool from the U.S. Census Bureau is giving state and local officials a more detailed look at where households may be most vulnerable during extreme summer heat, including in Western North Carolina.

The Local Air Conditioning Estimates (LACE) dataset, released by the U.S. Census Bureau, breaks down estimated air conditioning access by state, county, and even census tract—offering a neighborhood-level view that has not been widely available before.

While national data show that more than nine in ten U.S. households have air conditioning, officials say those broad figures can hide important gaps in mountain and rural regions, where housing stock, elevation, and income levels can all affect cooling access.

Why It Matters in Western North Carolina

In the mountains of Western North Carolina, including communities across Rutherford, McDowell, Henderson, Polk, and Buncombe counties, heat risk can vary sharply from one holler or ridge to the next.

Public health planners note that extreme heat has become a growing concern across North Carolina, especially during prolonged summer heat waves when humidity combines with high temperatures.

Even within a single county, LACE data shows that some neighborhoods may have nearly universal access to air conditioning, while others may have significantly fewer homes with cooling systems—particularly in older housing areas, mobile home communities, and higher-elevation rural tracts.

Local Planning and Emergency Response

Officials say the new estimates could help local governments and emergency managers better target resources during heat advisories.

That includes identifying where cooling centers may be most needed, where outreach to vulnerable residents should be prioritized, and where portable cooling assistance programs could have the greatest impact.

For counties across Western North Carolina that already coordinate seasonal emergency preparedness efforts through local health departments and emergency management agencies, the added geographic detail could help refine response plans during heat emergencies.

How the Data Works

The Census Bureau developed LACE by combining information from two federal surveys: the American Housing Survey and the American Community Survey.

The housing survey includes detailed questions about air conditioning, while the community survey provides broader geographic coverage. Researchers then use statistical modeling and machine learning techniques to estimate air conditioning access in smaller geographic areas that are not directly surveyed.

The result is an experimental dataset designed to help communities better understand local patterns of heat vulnerability.

Growing Focus on Heat Risk

Extreme heat is increasingly recognized by federal and state agencies as a major weather-related health threat, particularly for older adults, low-income households, and people with medical conditions.

In North Carolina, public health officials have emphasized the importance of preparedness during summer months, especially as heat events become more frequent and intense.

The Census Bureau is accepting feedback on the LACE estimates as it continues refining the model. Local governments, researchers, and public agencies can submit comments to the agency’s Social, Economic, and Housing Statistics Division.

As Western North Carolina heads into another summer season, officials say tools like LACE may help communities better identify where heat protection efforts are needed most—before temperatures reach dangerous levels.